Insights

Performance and market insights - September 2025

Market Insight
October 20, 2025

Performance summary

The CC Sage Capital Absolute Return Fund returned 0.81% inSeptember versus the RBA Cash Rate return of 0.32%.*

The CC Sage Capital Equity Plus Fund returned -0.63% inSeptember, outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 benchmark by 0.15%, which returned-0.78%.*

Contributors and detractors to performance

The Sage Groups^ that contributed most to performance wereGold, Defensives and Growth, while Resources, Yield and Domestic Cyclicalssubtracted. With limited company specific news this month, stock performancewas driven partly by macroeconomic and sectoral moves, and partly by ongoingnormalisation following the recent reporting season, as investors weighed upthe results and repositioned.

Within the Gold Group, Evolution Mining (ASX: EVN +27%),Northern Star Resources (ASX: NST +28%) and Genesis Minerals (ASX: GMD +31%)were the stand-out long positions, and with the sector up +23% the portfoliobenefitted from both a moderate gold overweight and good stock selection. Thestand-out positions in the Defensives Group included an overweight position inAGL Energy (ASX: AGL +8%) which bounced back after a weak reporting seasonresult and positive news flow from its investment in software provider Kaluza.An underweight position in Cochlear (ASX: COH -7%) also added value as themarket focused more on near term earnings downgrades than the expected impactfrom its new cochlear implant, while an overweight position in Life 360 (ASX:360 +14%) continued its strong momentum on expected growth in advertisingrevenue.

In the Resources Group, the biggest detractors came fromLithium underweights in Mineral Resources (ASX: MIN +10%) and Pilbara Minerals(ASX: PLS +3%). Lithium equities continued their strength from the previousmonth, despite concerns around supply disruption easing. This appears to beconnected to the US government taking equity positions in companies supplyingcritical minerals, largely rare earths to date, but also included a stake inLithium Americas and its Thacker Pass project. It’s unclear how supporting thisincrease in supply would benefit the lithium price or other producers, thoughthe market may be anticipating potential offtake agreements with price floors,similar to what occurred in the rare earths sector. Sage Capital considers thisunlikely as there is abundant ex-China supply with the major dominance being inrefining. On the positive side, a long position in Capstone Copper (ASX: CSC+21%) added value as it moved higher in line with the copper price following amudslide and force majeure at Grasberg in Indonesia, the world’s second largestcopper mine.

The Yield Group was a slight drag on the portfolio, with anoverweight position in Insurance Group Limited (ASX: IAG -6%) which detractedas it drifted off on weak sentiment on the premium interest rate cycle. InDomestic Cyclicals, an overweight position in Qantas Airways (ASX: QAN -5%)dragged on performance as the share price followed broader weakness in USairline stocks. An underweight position in Eagers Automative (ASX: APE +7%) wasalso a headwind as it continued a strong post-reporting run.

Market Review

For the month of September 2025, the S&P/ASX 200 TotalReturn Index declined by 0.78%, while the S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries Indexwas up 3.4%.

For the ASX 200, this represented a small pull back fromrecord highs after a strong run that began in April this year. In terms of SageGroups, Gold was incredibly strong (+24%), while Resources remained largelyflat and other sectors were down between -1% to -3.7%. In Australia, there wasa modest rotation from Banks and Insurers into large cap miners, but thishardly seems exciting compared to the pronounced moves in Small Cap stocks andGold.

Markets have been in a strong bull run, driven by enthusiasmon AI and surging credit demand on the back of an interest rate cutting cycleamidst strong inflation numbers. Retail involvement has seen the Russell 2000index surge, with the ARK Innovation ETF up over 100% in six months, the mostshorted stocks bouncing hard both in the US and Australia, while retailinvestor favourite sectors such as Lithium, Uranium, Drone stocks and Biotechshave all raced higher.

In the US, the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates,responding to a series of weaker jobs reports and negative jobs revisions, evenas inflation continued to climb higher, well above the target band. InAustralia, the RBA was more cautious, with the economy looking stronger and themarket is signalling that the current interest rate cutting cycle will beshallower.

​​​Read the fund reportsfor additional commentary.

* Past performance is not indicative of future performance. ^ Sage Capital uses a custom grouping system for long short positions (Defensives, Domestic Cyclicals, Global Cyclicals, Gold, Growth, REITs, Resources and Yield). With a focus on the principal macro earnings drivers for each stock, Sage Groups allow for comparisons to GICS for selecting stocks within a sector.
This information is for professional and wholesale investors only and has been prepared by Sage Capital Pty Ltd ACN 632 839 877 AR No. 001276472 (‘Sage Capital’). Channel Investment Management Limited ACN 163 234 240 AFSL 439007 (‘CIML’) is the responsible entity and issuer of units in the CC Sage Capital Equity Plus Fund ARSN 634 148 913 and the CC Sage Capital Absolute Return Fund ARSN 634 149 287 (collectively ‘the Funds’). Channel Capital Pty Ltd ACN 162 591 568 AR No. 001274413 (‘Channel’) provides investment infrastructure services for Sage Capital and is the holding company of CIML. This information is supplied on the following conditions which are expressly accepted and agreed to by each interested party (‘Recipient’).

This information contains general financial product advice only and has been prepared without taking into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular person. It is intended solely for wholesale clients (including sophisticated investors) as defined under sections 761G and 761GA of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth).

The information provided should not be considered personal advice, a recommendation, or an offer to invest in the Funds. Recipients should not rely on this information in making investment decisions. A Recipient should, before making any investment decisions, consider the appropriateness of the information, and seek professional advice.

Neither Sage Capital, Channel, CIML or their representatives and respective employees or officers (collectively, ‘the Beneficiaries’) make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of this information or subsequently provided to the Recipient or its advisers by any of the Beneficiaries, including, without limitation, any historical financial information, the estimates and projections and any other financial information derived there from, and nothing contained in this information is, or shall be relied upon, as a promise or representation, whether as to the past or the future. All investments contain risk. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

For further information and before investing, please read the Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination which is available from www.channelcapital.com.au
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